Weekly Global Economic Report – 9 October 2023

Weekly Global Report:

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Highlights

  • The World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for the East Asia and the Pacific region(external link), citing slower Chinese growth and lower global demand amid still-high interest rates and dampened trade. The World Bank expects the combined East Asia and the Pacific region to grow 5% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, slightly less than the 5.1% and 4.8% it had forecast in April.
  • However, diving deeper into the report provides a bright spot for Pacific Island economies1 (and New Zealand businesses operating in the Pacific Islands). The World Bank expects Pacific Island economies to grow at a rate of 5.2% in 2023 (substantially higher than the previously forecast of 4.3%), before slowing to 3.6% in 2024.
  • India’s Minister of State for External Affairs and Education, Dr Rajkumar Ranjan Singh visited New Zealand between 24-29 September. During Minister Singh’s visit he participated in the 1st India Business Summit in Auckland and held bilateral discussions with Ministers Tinetti and Radhakrishnan on strengthening ties between New Zealand and India.

Domestic

  • The New Zealand Reserve Bank has kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but has indicated that rates will remain high for longer as inflation persists. This is the Reserve Bank’s final review before the general election on 14 October.

Australia

  • The monthly Consumer Price Index indicator rose 5.2% in the 12 months to August, highlighting the persistent nature of Australia’s inflation problem. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the 5.2% figure for the month of August is higher than the previous month, which came in at 4.9% for July. The increase was mostly driven by a surge in fuel prices due to global supply factors.

Middle East and Africa

  • Minister for Trade and Export Growth Hon. Damien O’Connor visited Riyadh and Dubai 30-31 August to progress New Zealand’s trade and economic interests in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. A key visit objective was the announcement of the start of exploratory discussions with the United Arab Emirates on a bilateral trade agreement. The visit was also an opportunity to try and seek substantive progress in the New Zealand-GCC free trade agreement.

Europe

  • The European Commission announced that it will assess the risks of four critical technologies, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence, being weaponised by countries not aligned with its values and will take measures next year to tackle the issue. The move by the EU echoes similar measures taken by the United States, Australia and other countries that have acknowledged the role key technologies play in geopolitical competition.

Asia

  • Last month [13 September] Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida publicly listed New Zealand among a very short list of like-minded countries with which Japan is seeking to strengthen co-operation. The listing of New Zealand amongst a core group of key partners - alongside South Korea, Australia and India – comes on the back of sustained high-level engagement between New Zealand and Japan over recent years.

1. Defined in the report to include Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

Market reports released this week

The following links may provide useful information to businesses:

NZTE(external link) has a website focused on providing COVID-19 information for exporters. They’ve also launched myNZTE(external link), an interactive digital portal of insights and tools available to all New Zealand exporters.

The Treasury releases a weekly economic update(external link) every Friday. Stats NZ has published a data portal(external link) with near real-time economic indicators.

MBIE publishes a sector reports series(external link) which provides regularly updated reports on all industry sectors that make up the New Zealand economy. These include official economic data and the challenges and opportunities that face New Zealand’s industry sectors.

Business.govt.nz(external link) provides tools and advice from across government to save small businesses’ time and help make the business a success.

MFAT has created a tariff finder(external link) which is designed to help goods exporters and importers maximise benefits from New Zealand’s Free Trade Agreements and compare tariffs in 136 other markets.

The all of government Trade Barriers(external link) website can be used to register any trade barriers experienced or issues exporting to an offshore market. Queries can be sent via the website or through the MFAT Exporter Helpline 0800 824 605. Enquiries will be sent to the government agency best placed to answer.

Tatauranga Aotearoa Stats NZ provides official data on the value of New Zealand’s exports and imports of both goods and services, by commodity type via the New Zealand Trade Dashboard(external link). This interactive dashboard is updated every quarter and allows for filtering by country and by commodity type.

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New Zealand Trade & Enterprise’s comprehensive market guides(external link) cover export regulations, business culture, market-entry strategies and more.

Disclaimer

This information released in this report aligns with the provisions of the Official Information Act 1982. The opinions and analysis expressed in this report are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official policy position of the New Zealand Government. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for the accuracy of this report.

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