The impact the export is expected to have on peace, security and stability.
Guidance on Criterion 5
While assessment under Criterion 4 will focus on the impact an export may have on the security or national interests of Aotearoa New Zealand, Criterion 5 will consider its potential impact on peace, security and stability elsewhere, including in relation to our security interests. In some circumstances, that impact may have been the subject of existing scrutiny or assessment. For example, in some situations the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) may have already mandated an arms and equipment embargo on relevant exports to a particular destination or end-user. (Such mandates would also be considered under Criterion 2 if relevant to the export in question.)
Not all situations of conflict, insecurity or instability are the subject of UNSC resolutions, however. As a result, the assessment under Criterion 5 has an important role to play in ensuring that the impact of any controlled export on peace, security and stability is taken into account.
Whether the government has a policy against exporting controlled items to the destination in question, or has expressed concern about the actions of a destination state or end-user that are relevant to the export in question will be considered under Criterion 5. The government’s decision in 2022 to sanction Russia, and its position on the provision of assistance to Ukraine, are examples of policies relevant to the application of this Criterion.
For states not subject to a specific government policy, assessment under Criterion 5 will still include a range of factors. For example, whether the export destination or end-user is involved in an inter- or intra-state conflict, is known or suspected to sponsor terrorism, or has threatened the security of another state or group of states will be relevant considerations.
In addition, the assessment may consider whether the proposed export would help support a state’s ability to defend itself in accordance with the United Nations Charter, or to legitimately ensure its security (for example, by strengthening its ability to monitor and patrol its maritime environment or to communicate securely). Consideration may also be given to whether the export may introduce, contribute to, or exacerbate a destabilising imbalance in the capabilities of two potential adversaries, or address an existing imbalance.